Arsenal Mastering Marginal Gains Makes Media Pussy Boil – Suburban Gooners

They talk about us being “paranoid” as a fanbase. They say we are very loud and we are the most conspiratorial partisan collective. We are apparently the most vocal when it comes to believing that we are worse off than any other team. But isn’t it surprising then that mainstream media outlets like these use us as a test case for extreme views? You like Jamie O’Hara, or yesterday I unfortunately saw a clip of Jeff Stelling talking about how we are so boring to watch. Apparently we don’t play open and expansive enough football and this is the reason, citing the current situation with Arsenal and the fact that we are currently 14th for goals scored from open play. Here is the table if you want to take a look. I have to admit this is the first time I’ve seen this table and certainly the first time the media has used it with this much enthusiasm, but maybe it’s been around for a while and Football365 certainly has the data to prove it’s been around for a while.

It remains to be seen whether this was mentioned or not. But it’s interesting that Sky, TalkShite and other click zones across the internet are leaning into this narrative about us. James and I did a little section of it on the Same Old Arsenal module last night. Why are we talking about it so much?

I think it’s probably because more and more teams are taking advantage of Arsenal’s success. I find that in football, there are certainly fashions that tend to invade elite football. There is the throw the ball into touch to gain territoryTHE go for the long cast and the emphasis on set pieces as a key part of the play we have seen this season. But the football fashion has lasted for years. When I was a kid, everyone played 4-4-2 and that’s it. There was a time when Conte was winning the Premier League for Chelsea when everyone suddenly wanted to play three at the back. Then lately we’ve seen a lot of teams opting for a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3, with fast, wide forwards all the rage, as opposed to your straight midfielders like Ray Parlor.

What we are seeing now is just the latest tactical evolution. The only problem is that football is steeped in its narratives and dinosaurs like Jeff Stelling, who have been on our screens and radio stations for 30 years, still focus on ‘how it used to be’. What they don’t realize is that in fact football has become much more technical, much more complex and much more data driven in all teams at the elite levels, that teams are eradicating errors and therefore the concept of ‘marginal gains’ becomes vital.

Arsenal’s problem – well, it’s a problem everyone has, not us – is that Arsenal have perfected their specialty of marginal winning to such a point that you can’t stop it no matter how much you practice it. Football has become so risk-averse that you to have consider tactical situations as an opportunity to make a difference. What are the main ways in which a manager or his coaching staff can actually influence the game more than any other situation? It’s not about dribbling Messi around ten players. It’s not about getting players to shoot from the halfway line, or telling them to score goals from open play, or hoping for a mistake from open play. It is in these situations that there is a stoppage in play and therefore positions can be fixed and those on the sideline can move their chess pieces around the board. These are set pieces. Corners, free kicks, launch additions. People talk about the return of long throw-ins as if it’s some sort of throwback to the Stoke days, but in reality clubs have just realized that if they practice them correctly they can actually look like corners. This Brentford guy whipping his throw-ins low and hard is effectively like getting a corner from the side. And you get so many hits over the course of a match. And when you think about how the probability of scoring increases when you get a corner (this is a few years old at Opta, but it’s still relevant I think), doesn’t it make sense that when you also deal with throw-ins like that, you’re just playing the numbers game, right?

The best argument I saw to Arsenal negativity from our fans was this argument:

If you want open goals, how about you don’t come and try to park the bus against us?

If you’re a Liverpool, City, United, Bournemouth, Sunderland, Chelsea fan and you make these kinds of comments (I don’t know how many Sunderland or Bournemouth fans have to be honest) then you might be wondering why so many teams make the box cluttered. It is difficult to score goals from open play when there are 18 players in a penalty area. The only other solution is to shoot from distance, but the chances of scoring with 18 players in the box diminish quickly. So, Jeff Stelling, if you want to pop Arsenal so the games aren’t expansive, maybe also pop the teams playing Arsenal?

Leeds came to play us.

Lost 5-0.

Forest came to play us.

Lost 3-0.

If teams come and don’t park the bus, then there’s a football game to be played, but in the meantime, your anger should be directed in other directions than Nicholas Jover. et al.

Last season we were accused of parking the bus against City and lambasted for not making it a football match. No such dagger has been thrown in the direction of Man City this season. Palace played a game designed to be compact and barely got into our half until the second half when they had to go for it. But even then, they didn’t register anything resembling a big chance, from where I was sitting. Yet no one said anything about them.

It’s still Arsenal.

We are used to it now.

Back tomorrow as we prepare for Brighton at home in the League Cup.