By Karl Matchett
The familiar pursuit of the twins
For Real Madrid, the confrontation that begins here is nothing unusual: they want to win the Champions League and the Spanish title, they are in search of both and the title race is completely expected. What is different is the manager, with Álvaro Arbeloa having less than 20 games in his senior managerial career, and the fact that they are not considered favorites in either competition as things stand. To catch Barcelona in La Liga, they will need some consistency, especially at home where they have suffered two defeats this season – but there are four points difference and ten to play, so it is far from insurmountable.
Simeone stuck between ideals?
Atleti were the poster child for strong defenses under Diego Simeone during the era of Gabi, Koke, Diego Godin and Diego Costa. Koke remains, but the team is very different now, trying to be more expansive but not quite reaching the elite heights of some other teams on offense while also not being as hard to break down as before. There is little between Atleti and Real these days in defensive terms, with the Rojiblancos seeing an xG against them of 30.5 to Real’s 30.8, conceding 25 to Real’s 24 and keeping 12 clean sheets to Real’s 11.
This really appears to be a game where Atlético must outdo themselves greatly in the attacking third if they are to complete a league double against their local rivals this season – as they did earlier in the campaign by crushing Real 5-2.
Recent form
Real have won four in a row, including two against Manchester City recently, while they have won nine out of ten at home in all competitions. Atlético lost midweek to Tottenham but won on aggregate, with six wins in their last eight games – but just three wins in their last ten away games.
Team News
No Ferland Mendy, Raúl Asencio or Rodrygo for Real Madrid, but Éder Militão is close to a return.
Neither team will have their first choice goalkeeper, with Thibaut Courtois ruled out for Real and Jan Oblak a huge miss for Atlético. Matteo Ruggeri could also miss his shot.
Key player
It’s hard to doubt Simeone at times, but Julián Alvarez must surely play – he is key to any hope for Atlético of surprising their rivals. Relentless and talented but super creative too; Alvarez is La Liga’s top striker for expected assists, creating 2.3 chances and 1.3 accurate crosses per 90 minutes. In Europe, over the past year, he is also ahead of 99% of all strikers in chances created – but his last 90 minutes in the league was on January 25. Simeone loves replacing him.
Prediction
Home form will be telling for Los Blancos in the title fight and it must start with three points: Real Madrid 3-1 Atlético Madrid.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
You can follow every LaLiga game with FotMob this season – with in-depth coverage of stats, xG and player ratings. Download the free app here.
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