A game of transitions today against a Palace with a strong identity? – Crazy people from the suburbs

Having successfully navigated and fully enjoyed Watch Hate SaturdayI am now fully focused on match day on Sunday and I have to tell you that the nerves are already there.

Last season, with every mistake Liverpool made, we failed to capitalize. I remember seeing that Liverpool made a mistake in week 16 and drew against Fulham at home last season. But then we played a dismal 0-0 at home to Everton, which seemed to have happened many times. Conversely, they were always there and doing their thing when we made a mistake, so from the start we felt like the league was going to slip away from us. Today, facing a very good Palace team who are going to give us problems, we have to banish all the demons from last season and do what we have done most of the season: get the result we need.

It’s also a match in which, last season, we made mistakes against the formidable Drawing-ite this tormented us throughout the season. Palace went 2-2 and were pretty good on the day; Eze scored a particularly good volley from the edge of the box if I remember correctly.

But today we have to have the answers to what they will bring, which will be a system that has given them a lot of fruit and ending their summer was a very impressive end to the season with an FA Cup, as well as an unbeaten run at the start of the season which ended only a few weeks ago. Palace are probably quite optimistic, despite no wins in three and as I mentioned in yesterday’s blog, Glasner looked like he was going for another scalp today, so we must be there.

We also need to be able to nullify their threat, which comes from a three-back setup, full-backs who like to maraud down the flanks and send impressive low balls to an in-form Mateta who already has five goals this season. I think given the way we give Calafiori the license to move forward and in doing so leave that left-back spot when we move forward, we’re going to need a response to big diagonal shifts in that space because Palace absolutely will. A quick look at a few measurements tells you that. If you look at how many times they progressively progress the ball by carrying or passing it forward (FBREF counts a “progressive pass” as one that is not in the defensive 40% of the field) Palace are second from bottom for carries and fourth from bottom for passes. This is not a Palace team that likes to develop the game. They win the ball and move it quickly with their long balls and especially their long diagonal balls. However, Palace don’t have many passes. They are the second lowest in the number of passes they attempt in the entire league. This is not a team that wants the ball all the time; they want to move back and forth with as few touches as possible and that tells me that I think they’ll want to set traps for us and crash on us. And they’re good at winning tackles and doing that – the best in the league in fact. In these three backs composed of Richards, Lacroix and Guehi, they have a solid defensive unit.

So I don’t think this will be a game where Palace will press us very high – they currently sit 14th in the league for the dominant pressing stat which is PPDA – so I think they will want to frustrate us and then throw some quick traps at us with Sarr, Mateta and Pino, who have all been in good form.

The onus for us will be on whoever replaces Big Gabi today, as all reports say he is not fit and with that in mind, Arteta has a few options. He may opt for Mosquera, who has impressed in these early stages of the season, then move William Saliba to left center half. Or he can play there at Calafiori and play in MLS as a left back. A third option is Hincapie and I think if he had played a bit more this season that’s what we would go for. It doesn’t send the best message to the Ecuadorian that he’s the left centre-half’s understudy if he’s not the first name called up when Big Gabi is away, but the problem is we only saw him for a few dead minutes at the end of the Bilbao game. Other than that, it just hasn’t been used, so I don’t think that’s what we’ll see today. I suspect it will be a Mosquera/Saliba partnership and given Mosquera’s quality, as well as the fact that he has already played many minutes, I would be OK with that.

So far I’ve only talked about Palace’s threats, but what about our options? Well, from what I’m alluding to above, Palace are clearly going to give us the ball and try to dope us, but maybe when they transition on us we can counter-transition back, so if there are fast breaks and we see it, I’d like to see us get the ball into the space vacated by their full backs. This, to me, means that Martinelli and Saka have to receive it in space and that means the defenders, as well as Zubimendi, have to get straight at them quicker. That’s what I want to see. Of course we have to try and get the job done when they sit in their compact shape and defend with five, but I want us to react quickly when they spread their players out on the pitch.

Perhaps it is also a play for a disjointed goal, if we have the ball and it is cluttered in the Palais area? With that in mind, I hope Big Vik can get another one if needed. It just needs to occupy the space. He’s unlikely to get the chance to run in behind too much today, so this will be another one he’ll have to fight for and if he gets an inch in the box – something Palace rarely succumb to given the stats – he must take it.

And we must take whatever is given to us. It won’t be easy, there will be nervous moments, but if you want to win this championship you have to win matches like today. I suspect City will get a result against Villa away, meaning if we lose today they will be first. We must therefore react. See you tomorrow for a debrief