Arsenal XI unchanged to face Forest? – Crazy people from the suburbs

Happy matchday everyone – I hope we’re all feeling positive ahead of a trip to the City Ground today?

This is a Forest team currently sitting 17th in the table, who have lost 12 of their 21 games this season (including a 3-0 against us at the Emirates during Postecoglou’s disastrous reign), who – as I pointed out yesterday – are in patchy overall form of late, and given our current form (Liverpool draw aside) one would hope that this is a team in which Arsenal could win and win comfortably.

But you and I both know that’s not how we do it. I’m absolutely convinced it won’t be comfortable today – Sean Dyche wouldn’t allow it – and so Arsenal are going to really work hard if they want those three points tonight.

By a strange quirk of fate, we also had a fairly poor recent face-off against Forest at the City pitch. Last season it was a 0-0 draw, lumped in with about a billion other draws we got. The previous season we won 2-1 at about the same time as now, with goals from Gabby Jesus and Bukayo Saka in the last 20 minutes. But before that we played them in May, when our title run basically ended in a 1-0 defeat there, and then the year before that I was in the game when we lost 1-0 in the FA Cup, the previous time being in 2018 where we lost 4-2 to a rotating Arsenal team who were pretty terrible defensively on the day that I remember. So that’s one win in five, which means there might be some Forest fans heading into tonight’s game thinking that maybe they could do us a bit of harm tonight.

Hey, it’s the Premier League, so it’s not outside the realm of reality that this could happen. City went for it, relied on a late goal, should have had a man sent off and were actually a bit lucky to take the overall victory. So we can’t be too arrogant to think that form and ranking are setting us up for a great night. As I mentioned yesterday, Forest will go straight, they will attack our final defensive third, they will be aggressive and we have to be ready for that.

This is why I think Arteta will keep the same team as Chelsea. He would have expected aggression from Chelsea in the same way he will expect it from Forest, so to me that means you have to go for Timber’s left-back, White’s right-back. Arteta has hinted at a return for one of Dowman, Mosquera or Calafiori, for which I think it could be Mosquera today. I don’t know why, but I just have a feeling that maybe he’s back. If this happens, it is indeed good news; we’ll play both of our right backs if we follow what I’ve suggested, and Mosquera can replace him, so if that means we can take one out – or maybe even both if the score favors us with 20 minutes to go – then that’s what we need to do. We have INTER midweek and I think Arteta just needs to rotate one or both White/Timber for that one as we don’t want to risk both, meaning a Mosquera return could allow him to replace him for INter, as well as for MLS on the left, allowing that rotation and rest we would need before a big home game against United.

That’s why I think he will be strong in the final four today.

I don’t think he changes midfield for this one either. Zubi-Rice-Odegaard thinks this is a must for a midfield battle which I think will include Andersen and Sangaré, fresh from the AFCON, so we need these first choice players ready and willing to go for it in this one. I hope Yates doesn’t get along, because every time I’ve seen him he’s a slam master who would happily leave a player on a player to take a yellow from him, so I hope if he plays it will be for the dying embers of this one.

Up top, again, I think the only question mark might be left wing, as I think Saka is obviously stuck for that, with Gyokeres leading the way, having scored in midweek. Hopefully Big Vik has a little more space as well. He goes up against tough defenders like Murrilo and six-foot-five Milenkovic. He’s not the fastest in the world, while Murillo is a little more muscular and apparently has occasional lapses in concentration, so if Viktor can find a way to take up space against these two, who knows, maybe he can score back-to-back goals?

So, who plays this left position? We could argue about the draw on certain players, I think, so it’s hard to follow. Are you going with the trickery and forming this season of Trossard? Maybe. But he did not shine in the last two matches. He hasn’t been poor, far from it, but I just haven’t seen him in the same scintillating form he showed a few weeks ago over the Christmas period. Martinelli is coming off a hat-trick last weekend, so he might be a good option, but if Forest sit in a compact shape when we have the ball, Martinelli might be reduced to the kind of play we all fear for him: hugging the touchline, no space to run in behind, touch-touch-touch-cross to nowhere. I think the space on the pitch will be taken up by Ola Aina, who is quick and good at recovering the ball, so it feels like you might need someone with skill to beat the man today. I wouldn’t mind seeing Madueke in this regard as he’s probably the best in the whole club at beating a man. Trossard also has more trickery than Martinelli, so he’s another option. An outside bet could be Eze, but I just think Arteta is giving up on the idea of ​​using him there, the last time we saw him for a while was in Villa’s defeat at the start of December. So there are at least two options for Arteta, depending on how he thinks Forest will line up, which is really positive in an attacking sense.

I think this one is going to be a bit tedious though. Forest fans will be loud; they’ll have had a few beers, so it’s going to be a lively atmosphere, which means getting the ball and winning early. WE tend to start games slow and control the ball, and given we played midweek, I bet we try to slow down that first half with possession, while Forest could be more aggressive at the start to try and get ahead and get the crowd on our side. If this happens, we need to find solutions to keep control of these first 30 minutes. Do that, then develop our game and hopefully we can get a victory.

We’ll have to, because City will have beaten a ragged United side who have only had a few days with Carrick in charge. I might watch the start of this one, until City score at least, but I don’t have much hope. So we have to do our work a few hours after the end.

Back tomorrow for a pod with James and Amanda, as well as the usual blog here. I’ll catch you then.