Lose to Arsenal, Forest next and match BBC facts

They say the hardest part of getting promoted is staying in the new division. I think they’re probably right. And the most difficult thing to achieve a series of victories like the one we have experienced will be the first match after the defeat.

Nottingham Forest is that game and Saturday’s result will be the most important game. Not the performance, but getting three points. If we don’t get three points we know the narrative, but if we get three points I think some people will look at Aston Villa a little differently.

Playing at home will help us too. We’ve looked a bit tired in the last two games and I think Villa Park will help us. But after Saturday we still have two matches in London. I’m not saying London is the problem, but playing away doesn’t make it any easier, unlike at Villa Park.

It’s not just about staying at home, although I think that plays a role, it’s about recovery and being able to prepare. These days, these aspects of a match day are important. So, Saturday, but before that a little about Arsenal.

It was always going to be difficult and as I wrote above, we didn’t look 100%. That said, Arsenal also had a home game ahead of us, so they were going to be in a better position. But and it’s not bitter grapes, I don’t think they’ll win the League and I think they’ll bottle it again.

There’s something about them that feels like it’s about to break. And Arteta, a bit like Maresca, who has just left Chelsea, is not Pep. And Pep looks (I’m writing this before City play later) like he’s giving Manchester City a perfect look for this second half of the season.

Match the BBC Facts

• Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last six Premier League home games against Nottingham Forest, winning the last five games in a row. Their last defeat dates back to October 1994 under Ron Atkinson (0-2).

• Nottingham Forest have won two of their last four league matches against Aston Villa (L2), as many as in their previous 18 (D7, L9).

• Aston Villa beat Leicester 2-1 in their first Premier League match of 2025. They have not won their first league match in consecutive calendar years since 2008/2009.

• Nottingham Forest have won their first league match in five of the last seven calendar years, including a 3-0 win over Wolves in 2025. The exceptions in this run were a 1-1 draw against Chelsea in 2023 and a 2-3 defeat at Brentford in 2024.

• Aston Villa have won their last 10 home matches in all competitions, the last in a longer run between October 1989 and January 1990 (11).

• Aston Villa’s 4-1 defeat at Arsenal ended their run of eight Premier League victories (11 in all competitions). Only twice since the start of the 2023-24 season have they lost consecutive league games, in November 2024 and August this season.

• No team has managed to score in more Premier League games this season than Nottingham Forest (10), while only Wolves (11) have scored fewer goals than the Tricky Trees (18).

• Undefeated in his first three Premier League away matches against Aston Villa (W1 D2), Nottingham Forest boss Sean Dyche has lost his last two matches at Villa Park by an aggregate score of 7-2.

• Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins has scored three goals in his last two Premier League matches, as many as in his previous 19. However, his last five league goals have been scored away from home, with his last goal coming at Villa Park in September against Fulham.

• Callum Hudson-Odoi and Morgan Gibbs-White are Nottingham Forest’s top scorers in the Premier League this season with three goals each. Only Wolves have a less efficient top scorer in the competition this season (2).