Will Arsenal have a more open game against Brighton? – Crazy people from the suburbs

It’s Brighton at home today in what is sure to be a very tricky encounter for Mikel Arteta’s men.

For several years now, Brighton have been one of those clubs that you say things like ‘they play decent football’ or ‘they’re a well-run club’, and over the years at the Emirates they’ve given us good value for money, that’s for sure. Last season it was a Joao Pedro goal to level things up after we took the lead and then received a ridiculous red card that we’ve never seen since for Declan Rice. It was right at the start of the season, I was in Portugal watching the game, and boy was I spitting feathers.

So, to clear that memory, I’d like to see a really good display of dominance and three points for The Arsenal. We’ve of course already played Brighton once in the League Cup this season, but they were a heavily rotated Arsenal team, and Fabian Hurzler also rotated his Brighton team, so it didn’t really feel like it mattered.

Today it matters, though, and Brighton will be at full strength, with a number of players returning from injury and suspension, such as Danny Welbeck, Lewis Dunk, Diego Gomez and Jan Paul Van Hecke, also returning. So despite a slight stalemate against Sunderland in their last game, they will have a number of key cogs in the machine today, so I expect them to be tough.

What Arteta needs to decide is how we will break down an organized Brighton side who will look to hit us in transition. I suspect the team news will see some players return from the bench against Palace, and so my hunch on who Arteta brings out today includes:

Raya

Wood – Saliba – Hincapie – Calafiori

Zubimendi

Ødegaard – Rice

Saka – Gyokères – Trossard

There’s obviously a question about Hincapie, but when I read the transcript of Arteta’s pre-match press conference a few days ago, I felt like it was a bit of a jab, and I think it will come today. It would be nice to hear that Big Gabi is back today, but I suspect they’re saving it for Villa at home; there is no inside track on this, just a hunch.

The midfielder returns to the first choice XI I think, while in attack I just have the feeling Arteta will think that with Gyokeres scoring in his last game he could have regained some confidence. I suspect two games in four days for Gabriel Jesus is also a bit too much for him at the moment. He did well against Palace, but I think his minutes will continue to be managed for the foreseeable future. Then, to complete the starting XI, I think that Léo Trossard’s form is such that we simply cannot rule him out. And against his former club, with a handful of boos in the outside corner of the pitch, I think that might be the sort of thing that will spur him on to have a good game today.

Speaking of returning players, we will no doubt also see Danny Welbeck leading the line today, which will be a challenge as he has enjoyed scoring a goal or two against old teams in the past and did so against us while playing for Watford a few seasons ago. He is also in good form this season and, before receiving his recent knock, he scored seven goals in 16 games this season. To put that form into context, he only scored 10 goals in 30 games last season, and the season before last it was five in 29 matches. So he’s found a bit of form again this season, and as I think we’ve seen with our new summer players, when strikers have confidence, they take risks they might not have otherwise.

In the League Cup, Brighton created chances, and I think they will today too. In fact, I seem to remember that we were a bit lucky to advance in this game, as Brighton had a few very presentable chances that they probably should have buried. As an Arsenal fan who mainly only cares about his own team and doesn’t religiously watch all kinds of football, I couldn’t tell whether or not this was the story of this particular match. Yet apparently this has been a feature of their season. So much so that Huzeler was asked about his number of shots compared to actual goal conversions, so it’s clear they will have chances today. The numbers sort of confirm this; Brighton sit sixth in the table for total shots, seventh for shots on target with a shots on target percentage of 31.4%, bringing them down to 13th.

So while I don’t think it will be a low-block game, I do think Brighton will sit a little deeper and open some traps. We won’t see any inventions from them and they will sometimes gain possession of the football, so it’s up to us to make sure that when we have it, we make it count.

I’ll be in a slightly different seat and going with the old man today, which is good, so hopefully we get a celebratory win to keep us in the lead, because there’s absolutely no chance of Forest pulling off an upset early on in the City game today.

Then tomorrow we’ll be back with a podcast giving a little summary of what’s going on. Let’s hope it’s a happy time.

Catch you all then.