Villa review – Arsenal second half makes a statement – ​​Suburban Gooners

Over the last few matches I’ve read a few blogs, listened to a few podcasts and spoken to a few friends, talking about how the performances weren’t quite up to the goal threat we produced. I’m sure you’ve been exposed to the whole ‘Arsenal have a goal in 9 xG’ narrative as much as I have. So this match last night felt like two forces coming together to battle each other:

• The Grand Arsenal’s underperforming data machine
• Great Aston Villa’s Outperforming Data Engine

As I mentioned a few days ago, Villa were a strange team from a data perspective, somehow defying statistical models. Given that they were coming off an 11-match winning streak, they came to the Emirates in very good form and their fans perhaps expected that they could very well cause an upset on our home turf.

I felt it too, to be honest, because Villa drew last season, and the season before that they smash-and-grab us, scoring two late goals. This could very well derail our season and I was very worried leading up to this.

Additionally, the fact that news emerged hours before kickoff that Rice would not be fit to play in this game compounded the nervousness. Arsenal would have to do it without our most in-form player of the season. But there were some positives to take, with Big Gabi returning to the lineup, as well as Jurrien Timber and given that Hincapie was now coming into the team more regularly and had performed very well at both central defense and left back this season, this was a back line that should be able to solve any potential problems Villa might pose.

But Rice’s absence was certainly felt during this first half and Villa posed some challenges for us in midfield with a particularly impressive Tielemans ball through the middle of our team that Rogers almost put through on goal. Fortunately the backline spared us the blushes, as in that first half Villa had the more presentable chances and unfortunately once again those half-decent chances fell to Big Viktor Gyokeres who failed to take them. But I’m not here to pick on him; maybe he could have done better with one of his headers, but he’s not known as a striker who scores great with his header, so unlike the first chance against Brighton, I think these were a bit more difficult. But he’s still not getting those positions and that remains a concern.

So was the playfulness of the Villa players who I thought were playing for time and slowing the game down in the early parts of this match. I don’t blame them; they were content to frustrate a home team and a crowd and, given our record on our own turf, if they could slow everything down by taking time on the ball, going down a lot, then they have every right to do so. And let’s not forget that a lot was made of Unai’s tactical subs in the second half and they certainly looked more impressive in the second half against Chelsea, so they obviously thought they had a plan to go with.

So Arsenal were going to have to change something in that second half and, boy, did they, because we were quick out of the traps and were ahead three minutes after the restart. I had read a Villa blog in the run-up to this match in which the author explained that Martinez was making some fantastic plays, but he was a little too concerned with the opposition players and that sometimes got him into trouble. It happened against Chelsea and it happened last night too. His complaints about Big Gabi’s foul were half-hearted at best and while it wasn’t at all vintage from the Brazilian, his mere presence destabilizes all defenders and goalkeepers and he showed that last night. In my opinion, he is the best central defender in the world, not only because of his threat in the attacking area, but also his presence at the heart of our defense. You could see the relief in the crowd when he came on as a substitute against Brighton and today he showed his worth on the attacking side as well.

However, one goal hasn’t seemed enough for Arsenal for some time now, so the most important thing the Arsenal players needed to do was get a second one and when you do that a few minutes after the first, there is always a great feeling of relief and belief that this could go on to be a great game. What I liked about this goal was that it had everything the first half didn’t have. I mentioned Tielemans’ pass in the first half that split our midfield – well that was an example of what happens if you press higher and win the ball higher up the pitch to stop that kind of passing and movement. Odegaard won the ball high – something we know we are good at – his pass to Zubi was perfect, the Spaniard’s shot on Martinez was done as if he was our centre-forward, it was 2-0 to Arsenal and suddenly we felt like there could be more for us here. Villa, which had been get away with From a stats perspective, for a few games now (if you listen to data nerds), it seemed like regression to the norm was upon us.

We were all over them from the start of the second half, but unlike recent weeks it was time to hand a team a defeat, and although we had to wait until the 69th minute for Leo to score another goal and really seal this game, we still created plenty of chances and I thought we were 100% for that third goal. I have to admit I thought it would be ruled out for offside, but the advantage of offside is that it’s a little less subjective than things like a foul or a handball call, so once the tech is checked and the goal is given, the relief could really set in.

And that relief turned to joy with the goal from Gabby Jesus, who as you could see was over the moon with her place at home to turn this into a proper victory. And it really was. Watkins’ goal took some of the shine off, but Arsenal took on an in-form team (albeit missing a few key players) and dismantled them. The narrative in recent weeks was that Arsenal were faltering, but it didn’t seem like it. It was like an adrenaline rush for a team ready to take it to the next level.

But there is no time to rest. Bournemouth away was somewhere we suffered last season, and so Arteta and his charges will be well aware of the threat they pose, having lost last season. We’ll talk more about this in the coming days as we prepare for Saturday’s game. For now, happy New Year’s Eve and I’m off for a walk in the Cotswolds before a drunken afternoon and evening.

See you tomorrow – hangover permitting.