Forest, Spurs, Forest and BBC match facts

I don’t often write a post the day after a game, but we have the Spurs on Sunday and there are a few things to write about after last night and it’s good to get it out of the way while it’s fresh.

I want to start with VAR and I’m a fan of VAR and the referees in Europe this season and have been for a long time because VAR only gets involved if absolutely necessary and the referees like to let the game play out. I like it. But I don’t think VAR should be in the game and I think there’s a reason for it that no one wants to discuss.

This ruins the game and fails too often. Last night is another good example. Look at the image below. You can’t make a tackle like this in the game. It’s an ankle breaker.

I am convinced that if the referee had seen this during the match it would have been a red. I have no doubt that any referee who sees this happening during a match will be red-faced. I haven’t heard anyone on the radio this morning who isn’t a Nottingham Forest fan saying it’s not a red. It’s a red any day of the week if you see it. And that’s exactly what VAR is there for.

And because I’m sure of it, I’m absolutely stunned that VAR didn’t give it. And you can’t blame the referee and if we didn’t have VAR and this happened, it’s one of those things you would accept. If we hadn’t had VAR we wouldn’t have had a penalty against us either, so the match would have ended in a draw and that seems like a fair result considering that broken ankle happened in the first half.

So if VAR isn’t doing the job it’s supposed to do, you have to ask yourself why. And when the most obvious reason is something people don’t want to talk about, you have to ask questions. Is it corrupt? Are people in football corrupt? Is the amount of money circulating in the game enough to corrupt people?

I don’t know, but I’m a fan of Occam’s Razor and have referenced it many times over the years. But it is written. We have to accept it and move on to next Thursday and we have to hope that things are different.

But I wrote yesterday that we would know after the match if we were going to play the final next month because we would see during the match if they really wanted to. I’m not sure we saw enough desire or intensity last night. Next Thursday is going to be a very nervous evening and Sunday against Spurs has a role to play.

Another thing I’ve also written many times on this blog over the years is that behavior begets behavior. We have to go out on Sunday and demonstrate that we want the Champions League next season. Sure, we have four games left this season and we are eight points behind, but we need more points and we can’t rely on the teams below us not to catch up.

It’s possible that the teams below us won’t get points and 58 is enough, but we can’t hope for that. We have to stand up and show that we want it. And intensity and desire do not mean getting rid of the ball as quickly as possible. It means creating opportunities to advance the ball, it means watching, it means making the right pass, it means taking risks when we can.

These are not easy things to do when the team you are playing against is also chasing the ball, closing spaces and making tackles. This is why the game is about very specific details. That’s why I trust the manager and why it bothers me that some players play these silly passes or flicks when they’re not sure it’s going to any of our players.

It bothers me when they run and run and look like they’re trying hard but make stupid mistakes and clearly lose focus. Sunday is important because three points and it will be easier on Thursday because behavior breeds behavior. We must win on Sunday and I would dare to write it, we must win next Thursday.

Match the BBC Facts

• Aston Villa won this exact match 2-0 last season, last beating Tottenham Hotspur in consecutive home league games in May/November 2004.

• Tottenham Hotspur have lost six of their last 10 Premier League matches against Aston Villa (W4), more than in their previous 34 against the Villans (W19, D10, L5).

• None of the last 21 Premier League meetings between Aston Villa (7 wins) and Spurs (14) have finished tied. Only Chelsea against Crystal Palace (26 between September 1997 and February 2024) has had a longer run without a draw in the history of the competition.

• Aston Villa have won just two of their last seven Premier League matches (D1 L4), suffering as many defeats as in their previous 24 matches (W15, D5), but could win three in a row at home for the first time since January (run of eight).

• Spurs ended a 15-match winless run against Wolves last time out (1-0) and could record successive Premier League wins for the first time since their opening two matches this season against Burnley (3-0) and Manchester City (2-0).

• 36.9% of Aston Villa’s chances created in the Premier League this season have come from the middle third of the pitch, the fourth highest proportion behind Bournemouth (39.4%), Brighton (37.7%) and Newcastle (37.5%), while 33.9% of chances created against Spurs this season have come from the middle; the fifth highest rate.

• Under Roberto De Zerbi, Spurs are averaging more pressing sequences per game (12.7) and possessions won in the final third per game (5.3) than they were under Thomas Frank (11.1 and 3.7) and Igor Tudor (10.8 and 3.8) in the Premier League this season.

• 10 of Ollie Watkins’ 11 Premier League goals this season have come since the start of December, with no player having scored more in that time. Indeed, he has scored goals in three previous Premier League matches against teams managed by Roberto De Zerbi, including a hat-trick in September 2023.

• Aston Villa’s Pau Torres is averaging 9.5 assists per 90 in the Premier League this season, the fifth highest centre-back with at least 1,500 minutes. In Aston Villa’s defeat to Fulham last time out, his 11 appearances were the most of any player.

• Spurs’ Richarlison averages 0.72 goals per 90 this season (9 goals, 4 assists in 1,615 minutes), his third best rate in a Premier League campaign behind 2023-24 and 2024-25 (both 0.9 per 90).